Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options by Paul K. Davis

By Paul K. Davis

An analytical framework and technique for capability-area stories is defined, in addition to new instruments to help features research and strategic-level protection making plans within the safeguard division and the prone. BCOT generates and monitors initial ideas, and the Portfolio-Analysis software (PAT) is used to guage strategies that cross screening. The recommendations are illustrated with purposes to worldwide Strike and Ballistic Missile safety. thoughts are made for extra defense-planning study.

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Choices must then be made, programs and budgets developed, and capabilities acquired. Iteration occurs (see bottom of figure) as the result of time, experience, and changes in the environment. The authors of the Aldridge Report acknowledged that the boxed segment, enhanced planning, was where miracles must happen. When viewed in detail, that component turns out to be complex, burdensome, and bureaucratic—a problem recognized by senior officials and officers. DoD leaders have been trying to improve that process, and such efforts are continuing.

We use Global Strike Raid and Ballistic Missile Defense as illustrative capability areas. 1 2 Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options work can be used for in-depth analyses, and it also anticipates the need for condensed, meaty, but understandable summary discussions. Except for the context-setting discussion in Chapter Two, the monograph is not about process issues but rather focuses on analytic frameworks and methods. The monograph is one element in RAND’s continuing contributions to capabilities-based planning (CBP) (Davis, Gompert, and Kugler, 1996; Davis, 2002).

Chapter Seven briefly summarizes our conclusions and suggests desirable next steps for research. Appendix A summarizes the Joint Capability Areas used by the Joint Staff. Appendix B points out implications of this work for systems engineering and modeling and simulation. Appendix C describes features of RAND’s Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT). CHAPTER TWO Background: The Capabilities-Development Process Context: DoD’s Capabilities-Development Process In recent years, the Department of Defense has sought to create a process suitable for the capabilities-based planning (CBP) mandated in 2001 and reinforced in the most recent Quadrennial Defense Reviews (Rumsfeld, 2001, 2006).

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