Securing America's Passenger-Rail Systems by Jeremy M. Wilson, Brian A. Jackson, Mel Eisman, Paul

By Jeremy M. Wilson, Brian A. Jackson, Mel Eisman, Paul Steinberg, Jack K. Riley

U.S. groups depend upon trustworthy, secure, and safe rail structures. each one weekday, greater than 12 million passengers take to U.S. railways. This publication explains a framework for defense planners and policymakers to lead reasonably priced rail-security making plans, particularly for the chance of terrorism. hazard is a functionality of danger, vulnerability, and outcomes. This booklet specializes in addressing vulnerabilities and restricting outcomes.

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Laying Out a Notional Rail System In the previous chapter, in which we discussed threat, we laid out a schematic of a rail system to illustrate where attacks have historically occurred. However, contemporary rail systems, particularly subway and commuter systems within major cities, present a more varied potential-target environment than did the schematic we showed earlier. In trying to determine attack scenarios, highlighting the vulnerabilities of rail systems to 17 18 Securing America’s Passenger-Rail Systems such attacks, and considering mitigation strategies to address such vulnerabilities, we need a more detailed model of the rail system.

Note that we have not included all the ways in which a terrorist organization could potentially deliver particular weapons to a rail system. For example, a mortar could be used to attack above-ground elements or trains when they are on the surface, a specific scenario that our simplified set of attack modes does not fully address. Such simplification is partly to limit the complexity of subsequent analysis, but it is also based on the fact that (as open and accessible sites) such delivery mechanisms are not needed at this time to deliver explosives to these targets.

Government physician who traveled to Japan in the days after the incident to learn about the response, reported that, of “5,510 casualties; they had a total of 12 deaths, . . 17 critical patients; 37 severe, and 984 moderate. ” Although the uncertainty around this particular value is wide, the reality is that there is unavoidable uncertainty associated with all casualty figures in terrorist attacks because of the processes through which the information is collected for inclusion. Without a clearer rationale for selecting a value different from that already included in our database for this particular incident and no others, we have calculated average injury numbers both with and without that value to show its effect on the overall estimated casualty figures.

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